The price of coal soared in 2023, reaching almost $300 a ton in parts of Europe. And it fell back just as fast to half that, and less in some regions. There’s always a spike in demand over the northern winter when homes and factories need heating, but last year was special. You see, Russia accounts for around 17% of the world’s coal, and sanctions panicked the market, until it became clear that Moscow is selling as much coal as ever, including some to South Africa.

So are the sanctions imposed over Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine working? Apparently the clue is in commodity prices. I’m a journalist and words are my game. But I’m also Zimbabwean and, although I was a kid when my country then known as Rhodesia was under sanctions, it had the strongest currency in Africa and the older generation say goods flowed in and out, and inflation was close to zero.

What then is the truth about Russia? Recently, I got together with a group of miners and metallurgists to talk about this over drinks. They’re a twitchy bunch, each trying to out-guess their rivals and predict when some mineral will take flight as copper has done recently (as well as causing an epidemic of cable theft) thanks to its use in electric cars.

Would they speak on the record? Their clients rely on discretion, especially over the buying and selling of goods from Russia, so the deal was I could use the information but not their names. Even so, by the time we were done, I had learned a lot. The conversation focused on three areas where Russia and Africa compete: coal, diamonds and platinum.

South Africa is the world’s largest producer of platinum, followed by Russia, Zimbabwe, Canada, and the United States. South Africa produces more than two-thirds of the world’s platinum, much of it near Rustenburg. Russia is next with 15%, but theoretically that’s been sealed off by sanctions. Not if you look at the numbers.

It wasn’t too long ago that platinum out-performed gold which is now at an all-time high and could, by Christmas, pass $2800 an ounce. Platinum is languishing between $1000 and $1100. It was double that in 2008, and the factors are complex. It’s a vital element in batteries and gadgets and the treatment of breast cancer.

But there hasn’t been the leap in price we should have seen if Russian had been forced out of business. This is not good news for Anglo American which dominates the market (producing around 40% of global supply) and hopes to sell its mines in SA.

More on that later. Diamonds have collapsed in price, a worry for Botswana where they account for a majority of exports. Factory stones — cheaper and indistinguishable from the real thing — now account for almost half the engagement rings in the US and, no, the groom doesn’t get to spend less. Rather the bride gets a bigger bauble for the same price.

But from my gathering of experts I learned that most of the gems are bought for industrial use, and Russia accounts for one-in-three of the world’s diamonds. Second place goes to Botswana at half the number of carats. So why hasn’t the diamond price soared? “In the 1980s, did the world price of grapefruit go through the roof?” one of the group asked me and when the look on my face showed I had no Idea what she was on about she explained.

“Sanctions against South Africa were at their most intense in the mid-80s, but the citrus market was stable.” “Who picked up the slack?” I asked. “South Africa kept selling,” she said. “At a discount to draw in buyers. That’s what Russia is doing with diamonds.” The others nodded.

This brought us back to coal and the recent story about Siberian anthracite being shipped to Richard’s Bay. The world price went up when everyone thought sanctions might have an effect, but it’s down now, and clearly Putin is having no trouble selling his stuff. China has bought 13% more this year than last. Speculation is they’re also demanding a discount and storing for the future.

China is the world’s biggest user of coal though vast amounts are used in the US, India and Europe. If what I’m told is right, much of Europe had decided to go with Russian gas before the war in Ukraine. But in places where in winter the temperature can drop to -30˚C, people die when the power goes off, and Putin could simply close the tap on a country that angered him.

Germany has reopened their coal power stations, Poland uses tons of it, and still we aren’t seeing a jump in price. Are some NATO members that imposed the sanctions buying commodities under the counter at a discount? No one in the group could answer that, but Russia doesn’t appear to be selling less of anything.

This year Australia’s BHP offered $49billion for Anglo American with a footnote that, if successful, they’d hive off de Beers, Anglo Platinum and the company’s Aussie coal fields. Anglo rejected the deal, but were apparently drawn to the idea of selling the very same assets: de Beers, the platinum mines and their Aussie coal operations (now including a mine in Queensland that has caught fire and is out of commission.)

Selling these assets is now Anglo’s official plan. Why is this important? Because thus far there are no outright buyers for the platinum operation or de Beers, and there are not even rumours of anyone in the queue. Interest in the coal assets in Queensland is much more muted than Anglo would like given the best mine has a fire smouldering in it.

How different might it have looked if sanctions against Russia worked? We’d have a jump in the price of coal, diamonds and platinum, the three commodities Anglo wants to get out of.

The company is doing well with its copper in Latin America and CEO Duncan Wanblad says Africa will still have a role to play in the future. In the game of willing-seller willing-buyer, there’s always a market. Anglo will sell its holdings, but it seems it could take years to get this done.

And the price is likely to be low and certainly lower than what would have been implied had Anglo accepted BHP’s offer six months ago. Or, maybe with the US election, a new president will turn the screw and shut the Russian economy. Didn’t happen with the Rhodesian dollar in the ’70s or grapefruit in the ’80s. And it seems not much has changed.

Savious Kwinika is Editor-In-Chief at the Centre for African Journalism, CAJ News Africa.