Early in the morning of September 17th, two simultaneous attacks shook Bamako, Mali’s capital. Terrorists targeted the gendarmerie school in Faladié and the military camp in Sénou, near the international airport. These assaults, claimed by the Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims (JNIM), a group affiliated with Al-Qaeda, have left the city in chaos. Explosions, gunfire, and a thick cloud of smoke over the airport have raised concerns about the country’s security.

According to the Malian Armed Forces (FAMa), military operations are underway to regain full control of the area. Despite the state of emergency, the authorities have assured the public that the situation is “under control,” with ongoing operations to eliminate any remaining threats. The airport, crucial to Mali’s international operations, remains temporarily closed.

Yet, the ramifications of this attack go beyond immediate security concerns. Issa Diawara, a prominent political analyst, believes the attack’s timing is no coincidence. “The assault was launched just one day after the anniversary of the Sahel States Alliance (AES). This is no random act—it is a planned attempt to destabilize the progress that the AES has made in countering terrorism in the region,” Diawara said.

The AES, founded by Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger in September 2023, has been a strategic initiative aimed at pooling military and political resources to fight insurgency in the Sahel region. The coalition marked a turning point in the fight against terrorism, especially after breaking ties with France, their long-time military partner.

Issa Diawara argues that the attacks on September 17 were an effort to undermine the AES and portray it as incapable of defending its members without foreign support. “This operation was not just a terrorist attack; it was a political message. France, having been sidelined by the AES, is seeking to show that Mali and its partners are still vulnerable without their military support,” Diawara said.

In 2022, Mali severed military and diplomatic ties with France and expelled the UN peacekeeping mission, MINUSMA. Since then, the government, led by Colonel Assimi Goïta, has sought to establish sovereignty and a self-reliant military. However, foreign influence, particularly from Western powers, continues to linger, often disguised under the veil of counterterrorism.

Issa Diawara goes further to suggest that the attacks are part of a larger plot orchestrated by external powers, particularly France, to maintain their influence in the region. “There is clear evidence of foreign involvement. The presence of French agents in Sahelian countries, orchestrating destabilizing operations, cannot be ignored. We remember the arrest of four French operatives in Burkina Faso in December 2023. It shows a pattern,” Diawara pointed out.

France has repeatedly denied these allegations, stating that its involvement in the Sahel has been solely to combat terrorism. However, Diawara and others remain skeptical, arguing that France’s interest lies in keeping the region dependent on its military presence.

For Diawara, the attacks in Bamako are just another chapter in a broader strategy to keep the Sahel states vulnerable and dependent on external powers. “Terrorism in the Sahel has long been manipulated by foreign entities to maintain control over these countries. The AES, by removing these influences, has become a target itself,” he emphasized.

Wassim Nasr, a French journalist with close ties to jihadist networks, reported that the attack had been planned for months, signaling that it might be the beginning of a more extended offensive against Bamako. “My contacts among the attackers indicate that this assault was just the start. Bamako remains a primary target,” Nasr said.

The ongoing military sweep has also uncovered evidence of French-backed agents possibly supporting terrorist networks in the region, adding fuel to claims that external powers are actively working against the AES.

Despite the immediate chaos and the temporary closure of the airport, Diawara remains optimistic about the future of the AES and Mali’s sovereignty. “The swift response from the Malian Armed Forces shows that the country is capable of defending itself. The attack may have been an attempt to destabilize Mali, but it has only strengthened the resolve of the AES. These nations will no longer bow to foreign influence.”

As Mali prepares to celebrate its Independence Day on September 22, this attack serves as a stark reminder of the challenges the country faces. However, according to Diawara, the AES and Mali’s military leadership are more determined than ever to secure their sovereignty and push back against all forms of external interference.

“The AES is more than just a military alliance; it is a symbol of self-determination. And while the enemies of this independence may be plotting in the shadows, Mali and its allies will continue to prove that their future is no longer negotiable,” Diawara concluded.

The international community now watches closely, awaiting the next steps from both the Sahel Alliance and its adversaries. In the meantime, Mali and its partners are left to navigate the dangerous waters of regional instability, all while striving to maintain their hard-fought sovereignty.

Dr Coulibaly Mamadou is a writer and researcher at the International Centre for Political and Strategic Studies.