The African Union Commission (AUC) elections held in Addis Ababa on February 15, 2025, have stirred up both political discourse and speculations about their impact on local politics in Kenya. The race for the position of AUC Chairperson saw Raila Odinga, Kenya’s former Prime Minister, face stiff competition from Djibouti’s Foreign Minister Mahmoud Ali Youssouf and Madagascar’s Richard Randriamandrato.

After six rounds of voting, Odinga was eliminated in the final tally, with Youssouf securing 26 votes and Odinga managing 22. While the loss of such a seasoned political leader has been a significant setback, it also raises questions about the influence of Kenyan President William Ruto in both the continental political sphere and his own domestic political landscape.

Raila Odinga’s AUC Bid: A Political Move with Local Consequences

Odinga’s bid for the AUC chairmanship was not merely a diplomatic pursuit; it was seen by many as the final chapter in his storied political career. Despite his extensive experience and close ties with regional leaders, Odinga’s loss carries profound implications. Notably, this defeat could be viewed as a blow to Ruto’s political aspirations, especially since President Ruto had openly supported Odinga’s candidacy.

This support came at a time when President Ruto’s administration appeared to be keen on consolidating power within Kenya’s political landscape by positioning Odinga at a continental level.

Some analysts argue that Ruto had hoped that if Odinga secured the AUC chairmanship, it would remove him from the local political scene. With Odinga potentially out of Kenyan politics, it would create a clear space for President Ruto to further entrench his own leadership and expand his political base. However, the strategy backfired as Odinga’s loss has inadvertently raised questions about Ruto’s influence and whether the African leaders’ decision reflected a lack of confidence in the Kenyan president’s leadership.

A Vote of No Confidence in Ruto?

While it may be too early to call the AUC election a direct referendum on Ruto’s leadership, some observers see the outcome as a subtle rebuke to the Kenyan president. The failure to secure the AUC position for Odinga, despite extensive diplomatic efforts, may indicate that African leaders were not willing to play into Ruto’s political maneuvering. The loss, therefore, can be interpreted as a reflection of broader concerns among African leaders regarding Ruto’s rising influence within the continent.

Moreover, the loss of such a high-profile candidate like Odinga can be seen as an early indication that African leaders are cautious about allowing Ruto to exert too much influence over the African Union. While Odinga may not have been the favorite candidate for all African states, the fact that he failed to win despite his veteran experience suggests that there were other underlying factors in play.

Ruto’s Strategy: Domestic Politics and a Larger Game

It is widely speculated that Ruto’s support for Odinga’s AUC candidacy was part of a larger domestic strategy to sideline his long-time rival. By positioning Odinga at the African Union, Ruto could theoretically create room for himself to dominate Kenyan politics. This would clear the way for him to further consolidate power within his base, particularly after having defeated Odinga in the contentious 2022 presidential elections. However, the failure of this plan reveals a significant miscalculation on Ruto’s part.

Rather than eliminating Odinga from the political scene, the election result has cemented Odinga’s stature as a key figure in Kenyan and African politics. His defeat does not imply his exit from the political stage; instead, it highlights his ongoing relevance and influence. It is possible that Odinga’s experience and diplomatic network could be leveraged in different ways, perhaps even influencing political reform in Kenya.

The Aftermath: What Next for Raila Odinga and Kenya’s Politics?

The aftermath of Odinga’s loss in the AUC race has sparked calls from Ruto’s allies for constitutional reform to create a Prime Minister role in Kenya. Several leaders have argued that the Prime Minister position would be an appropriate vehicle for leveraging Odinga’s leadership skills and experience. Nandi Senator Samson Cherargei and Belgut Member of Parliament Nelson Koech have been vocal proponents of the idea, suggesting that this could be a way to accommodate Odinga within the Kenyan government structure.

However, despite the loss, Odinga remains an influential figure in Kenyan politics. His political capital, cultivated over decades of leadership, is unlikely to be extinguished by a setback at the continental level. In fact, his continued involvement in domestic politics, possibly through a Prime Ministerial role or as an elder statesman, could present both challenges and opportunities for Ruto’s government.

The Bigger Picture

The AUC chairmanship election marked a significant moment for both Odinga and Ruto, but it also underscored the complexity of African political dynamics. While Ruto’s support for Odinga may have been strategic, aiming to reduce his rival’s influence in Kenya, the backfiring result shows the unpredictability of international diplomacy. Odinga’s loss is a reminder that political maneuvering within national borders does not always align with continental dynamics.

At the same time, the outcome may signal to Kenyan political players that African leaders are not easily swayed by national politics and are willing to choose leaders who align with broader continental interests. Odinga’s defeat, while disappointing for Kenya, should not be viewed as the end of his influence, but rather as a moment of reckoning for the complex political landscape in Kenya and Africa as a whole.

Kalumbu Lumpa is a media practitioner in Zambia. He writes in his personal capacity.